BY DR DIANA TOLMIE
The population of Australian musicians largely live portfolio careers involving music and non-music contract and DIY employment.
And, as we know, negotiating a career in music can be pretty challenging for a variety of reasons. Therefore, it is no surprise that the question ‘What will our lives be like in the future?’ is common when considering our professional sustainability.
When foreseeing musicians’ livelihoods as far in the future as 2050, one first needs to reflect on what life for the general population will look like. A quick internet search suggests a plethora of Orwellian predictions: our boss will most likely be a robot; we will be able to marry a robot; the next Uber you catch will be able to fly; drones will function as taxis, reporters and couriers; global warming will be impossible to avoid with flooding coastal regions; and there will be 40 million Australians alone in a world of at least double today’s population.
It is easy to become overwhelmed with the doom and gloom predictions of the future, but this information is better digested with evidence of how this information arose, the foundations from which it was built, and how to discern what is worthy to believe.
Dr Stefan Hajkowicz has led the CSIRO Data61 Insight Team to develop seven megatrends (see Global megatrends: Seven patterns of change shaping our future, 2015) that identify the impact of environment, economic, and social events that will occur in future decades. These rigorously developed trends have been refined and developed since their first publication, but inherently have maintained their point.
Therefore, I use these to support my following predictions and subsequent questions for the musicians of 2050. Suggested preparations for the future will be relevant to those who identify as emerging and established musicians.
1. “More from less”
As stated in Hajkowicz’s Global megatrends, this megatrend suggests that the increase in population and incomes will place more pressure on our resources. Solutions have been developing such as vertical farming, battery storage, solar panel highways, plastic bag refuse turned into building supplies and pretty soon we could be living “off the grid”.
From a musical standpoint, already we are seeing innovations such as recycled materials used within instrument manufacture, and such projects as the Landfill Harmonic Orchestra.
Expect such initiatives to continue – the future of all our instruments may not be pure wood or brass, thus presenting a trend of musicians performing recycled instruments, and instrument makers who specialise in hybrid materials.
Outdoor concerts could be completely solar powered, and even providing energy for another concert at another venue. Music technologists also trained in solar design would be well-equipped for these events.
2. “Planetary pushback”
While the earth is warming up and seas are rising, what is less discussed – but of equal if not more concern – is increasing antimicrobial drug resistance. Data61 predicts that this will cause mortality rates in excess of those caused by cancer in 2050. (For comparison, 9.6 million died from cancer in 2018).
One scenario suggests these concerns could prohibit international travel. Alternatively, if the threat of pandemic viruses is solved, the trend of mobility enabled by larger and faster air travel would mean relocating those whose lands are literally sinking into the ocean. Immigration policies would certainly need reconsidering towards open boarders, and, if so, could increase the sharing of diverse cultures.
These predictions could impact musicians in many ways, such as the lowered likelihood of larger audiences or ensembles if airborne diseases are unable to be controlled (remember SARS?).
However, new virtual reality technologies could mean that concertgoers could attend a “virtual concert hall” or a “virtual stadium event” where one still purchases a ticket, dresses up for the event, and sits in their own “virtual” seat to watch a live performance that may be situated somewhere in their own country or overseas. It may be even possible to chat to the surrounding audience members who, likewise, could be located interstate or abroad.
While pandemic viruses may hinder the global travelling musician, there is good news. The growing trend of house concerts may continue to grow, not only performing live music to localised audiences but strengthening localised practices and perhaps creating “musical borders” or “regions”.
Medical solutions to microbial resistance will turn towards natural therapies and the value of music will increase, causing music education, music therapy, or music-as-therapy to be vital roles in physical and mental health sustainability.
The strain of health budgets would incur a more privatised approach to arts funding, and the philanthropic practices so well-embraced in the United States would need to be progressively (and aggressively) adopted in Australia.
Conversely, more government funding may be directed towards innovative music research as alternate health remedies are sought and the benefits of music are increasingly valued.
Either way, live musicians, music educators, music therapists, arts and funds administrators, and music researchers will not be out of a job in 2050.
3. “Going, going, gone?”
Posed as a question by Hajkowicz, this megatrend suggests much of the world’s natural habitats, plant, and animal species plus human cultures are in decline or risk of extinction, owing to greenhouse gas emissions and climate change. But the pressure of human response is also rising.
Australia has had a history of arts activism – for example Midnight Oil, and the work of Tim Minchin. This will increase over the coming decades, as educating the masses in saving our planet require memorable methods – of which music is a highly functional communication tool – to embed words with emotion leading to proactivity.
Songwriters would be wise to “skill-up” in effective copywriting techniques. Further to this, the digital methods of recording music and a generation of lost musical history must also be considered. “In the old days”, everything was written on paper and physically stored meaning the likelihood of lost archives only occurred from flood, fire, negligence, ignorance, or music ending up at the bottom of the budgie cage. These days, music is easily deleted, lost in computer upgrades, and, as the saying goes, “if it is not stored in three places, it doesn’t exist”.
Music historians will be kept busy following the digital breadcrumbs of composers and musicians of the past, and will need the skills of digital recovery similar to that of a hacker.
4. “The Silk Highway”
This relates to an economical shift from the Western to Eastern emerging markets. The biggest, China, is moving from manufacturing to services. Therefore, these economies will focus more on providing ideas, knowledge, and innovation.
Likewise, a shift from Eastern to Western music traditions is occurring in China. Already, musicians are seeing a movement of jazz appreciation in Shanghai and Beijing not dissimilar to its 1920s growth in the USA, and the orchestral profession is growing as more embrace the medium.
Similarly, music and creative education in Western methods are being trialled in China’s International Baccalaureate schools to break students out of rote-learning traditional mindsets.
This bodes well for Australians seeking further work outside of their own saturated job market, and will impact how they self-promote within the two cultures.
This inevitable hybridisation of musical cultures will also impact what and how we teach music to our own students – therefore, expect to incorporate a more multicultural pedagogy.
5. “Forever young”
Data61 suggests that Australia’s ageing population will negatively influence healthcare subsidy and, while a shift in diet and lifestyle could soften the impact, this is an area in dire need of innovation.
One internet search revealed scientists are now looking at unlocking the DNA of the immortal jellyfish (Turritopsis dohrnii) to discover the secret to prolonging life in humans. If successful, this has ramifications on which generational values will be guiding society in 2050.
It is predicted that Gen Z and Gen Alpha will be the decision makers. These are people born directly into a digital world, and who value diversity, inclusion and openness; are realistic and want reality, while adopting entrepreneurial and tech savvy practices; and want to “co-create” their cultural experiences, i.e. partake in collaborative art experiences rather than be a passive bystander. This poses big questions for all musicians: do we adjust our practices to align with these values? Will our music become more culturally diverse, and allow our audience to contribute to our compositions and live performances? Will there be a rise of DIY musicians all finding their own niche with less reliance on full-time or contract work?
That queried, a higher population of innovative and entrepreneurial musicians creating new projects usually means more contract and full-time work. Or, with new techniques to prevent ageing, will the older generations of Millennials and Gen X possess more influence on musical practices?
6. “Digital immersion and porous boundaries”
As this trend suggests, we have entered the Advanced Digital Age, where eventually there will be no perceptible difference between online and offline experiences. The Internet of Things and quantum power will evolve so privacy will become a privilege of the past.
On a positive note, this will mean sharing music experiences will become incredibly easy, as the cost of technology continues to decrease in inverse proportion to its availability.
However, copyright and intellectual property will require more protocols and policies for protection. The arguments for deciding who owns what within such a connected world will be exacerbated. Musicians with knowledge of cyber law will have their work cut out for them. Plus, forget cash-paid gigs: all transactions will be conducted online owing to a cashless society, and the tax office will know everything you do.
This trend also involves the highly discussed topic of artificial intelligence – “will robots steal my job?” – and how the employment landscape is changing to increasingly prefer those with complex, creative, social, and abstract capabilities. That is, those yet to be achieved by machines.
Rather than work instead of AI, people will be employed to work alongside AI. This spells great news for the accessibility challenged, and we will see those who have been previously inhibited by disability now entering a workforce enabled by AI. It may be that all musicians will need programming knowledge to allow AI to assist our own complex tasks. For instance, a drummer may have technological assistance to to pack the gig truck at 2am following the final set at the local RSL.
An abstract perspective: perhaps our musician brains (which are wired differently to “normal” people, possessing far more connections and higher density) will be modelled during the design of robots to perform more complex tasks. Perhaps the musicians’ role of the future will include offering an abstract perspective within non-music workplaces. Either way, embracing technology will be not so much of a choice rather than an inevitable necessity.
An interesting example of this trend: Huawei’s AI informed Mate 20 Pro smartphone recently completed the movements to Schubert’s Unfinished Symphony. Movement three and four sound nothing like the rest of the symphony, let alone Schubert. Could there be a rise of robot composers, bands, orchestras, and opera companies? Possibly not, as the final mega trend will further confirm.
7. “Great expectations”
Data61 suggests as we become more immersed and overwhelmed by our digital world, the value of real world experiences will increase.
Already, we are seeing “retro-trust” – consider the return to vinyl and less digital forms of music consumption. Futurist Bhargava also suggests we are craving familiarity and dependability in a time of post-truth and post-fact. So we can conclude that this megatrend is of most importance to musicians for the simple reason that music cannot lie.
Live performance will be increasingly valued to the point where there will be events, possibly held in a wi-fi impenetrable bunker, where audience members leave all forms of communications at the door and de-activate any tech-enabling body implants, and interact with an authentic non-streamed live event in-person. It won’t be recorded, it won’t be placed up on YouTube, and one will be able to talk about it afterwards with real concertgoers and interact with the musicians face to face – therefore, a unique event evoking emotions irreplaceable by any form of technology. And audience members will be willing to pay top dollar for this experience.
So, what does all of this mean for our musicians now?
In summary, 2050 will see more of the planet’s population seeking more profound meaning in their lives and ways of expressing authentic human emotion. Therefore, expect a rise of well-paid acoustic live performance in digital-free zones.
Music experiences in general will be increasingly reliant on audience input (be it participating in real-time, online, before-event, and/or after-event).
Large events (therefore large ensembles) may not be safe owing to biohazards. Therefore, the amount of musical communities will increase, be diverse (think cross-discipline, too) but may become “tribal”, localised, and more intimate in size. These events will largely source audiences from “vertical dwellings” as land mass decreases.
Conversely, be prepared to travel to China and/or embrace multi-culturalism plus learn a new language such as Mandarin.
Music therapy, music-as-therapy, and related allied health roles will increase in demand. Further to this, musicians’ transferrable skills will be of high value with some benefiting from learning complex technological occupations such as coding, AI, engineering, and design.
The music profession will further embrace diversity and inclusion, and with the rise of “enhanced humans” will increase in population, as those who are accessibility challenged enter the field.
Also, be prepared to cash in on the boom in robot weddings.
Overall, it is important that we do not make the mistakes of the past, and undersell our value. People will be willing to pay what we are worth if we uphold the practice of consistent and ethical fee-structures now and not just in live performance, but also teaching, composition, and production.
Further to this, musicians will need to continue to have a business savvy that is authentic and aligns with their aesthetic professional values.
If this happens, then we will be able to make a living in the career of our choice, long into the future.
About Diana
Dr Diana Tolmie has led an exciting life as a freelance woodwind specialist in a multitude of genres, performing in countless interstate and international tours, plus live radio and television broadcasts.
Appearing with many Australian professional orchestras and the acclaimed Malaysian Philharmonic, Diana has additionally explored chamber music with her internationally recognised group Collusion, performing Australian new music and dance collaboratives.
A recipient of the Churchill Fellowship Award and the Queen Elizabeth Trust Scholarship, more recently Arts Queensland and Australia Council for the Arts funding has contributed to her international performance activities.
Diana is full time Lecturer of Professional Practice at the Queensland Conservatorium Griffith University passionately teaching performance, pedagogy, musicians’ health and vocational preparation. Her teaching excellence has been recognised and awarded an AEL Group Learning & Teaching Citation (2014), a Highly Commended in the Employability within the Curriculum category of the Griffith University Awards for Excellence in Teaching (2016), and a University Australia Citation for Outstanding Contribution to Student Learning (2018).
Currently endorsed by D’Addario Woodwind, Diana is looking forward to her continued release of solo and chamber music recordings.
Editor’s note: Diana Tolmie drew from Hajkowicz’s Global megatrends for the titles and their definitions listed. Her developments of these ideas and themes into the music industry and its future are her own.
Featured image by American Public Power Association via Unsplash. Robot by Frank V via Unsplash.
